ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of the population living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank presented this figure in its October 2026 regional economic update. Poverty levels were assessed based on the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that threshold increased by 6.4 percentage points, making it the primary contributor to the surge in extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together represent another 47% of individuals living below the $3 poverty line across the region. Alongside Pakistan, these three nations constitute roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extremely poor population. Currently, about 14% of the world’s population living in extreme poverty resides in this region, second only to Sub-Saharan Africa. MENAAP remains the only global region where poverty levels are higher than pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
The situation in Pakistan has also worsened at the higher $4.20 daily income threshold used for lower-middle-income economies. The proportion of people living below this level increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. By 2024, the rate reached nearly 48%, compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional report attributes this deterioration to multiple shocks including the COVID-19 pandemic, the floods of 2022, high inflation, currency depreciation, and a prolonged period of economic adjustment. These factors are cited as key drivers behind the worsening poverty indicators in Pakistan.
Poverty levels escalate after years of economic challenges
A recent household survey conducted earlier in 2026 prompted a significant revision of poverty estimates for the region. The updated figures indicate that Pakistan’s revised data contributed to raising MENAAP’s estimated 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added approximately 21 million individuals to the region’s total count of those living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, MENAAP remained one of only two regions globally with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, the other being Sub-Saharan Africa.
Despite a return to positive economic growth, Pakistan’s poverty levels remain high. The latest projections estimate GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% for 2026, with an increase to 8.2% projected for 2027. This means that inflation in 2027 is expected to surpass the 2026 estimate even as the economy continues to expand.
Changes in regional classification influence poverty comparisons
The 48% figure also reflects a statistical adjustment that altered regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank’s classification system moved Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. Pakistan’s government clarified that this administrative change did not affect the country’s geographic identity or income classification. However, Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad noted that the new grouping impacted regional poverty figures because Pakistan’s large population was now included in MENAAP calculations. This reclassification influences how regional poverty shares are presented and interpreted.
The October update also pointed to a weakening economic outlook for MENAAP in 2026. The region’s output is projected to contract by 2.1%, following a growth of 3.3% in 2025. Several economies faced challenges from conflicts and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade sectors. Nonetheless, developing oil-importing countries, including Pakistan, are seen as relatively resilient, with a forecasted growth of 4.3% for this group in 2026. Rising food and energy costs continue to exert pressure on household purchasing power across multiple nations in the region.